Home Prices Continue to Chill

By  USDR

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for November 2014 shows a continued slowdown in home prices nationwide, but with price increases in nine  cities.

More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market can also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices’ housing blog:  www.housingviews.com.

Year-over-Year
Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites saw year-over-year growth rates decline in November compared to October. The 10-City Composite gained 4.2% year-over-year, down from 4.4% in October. The 20-City Composite gained 4.3% year-over-year, compared to 4.5% in October. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 4.7% annual gain in November 2014 versus 4.6% in October   2014.

Miami and San Francisco continue to lead all cities, posting gains of 8.6% and 8.9% over the last 12 months. Nine cities, includingTampa, Atlanta, Charlotte, and Portland, saw annual growth rates climb more than other cities in November. 12-month growth rates for Detroit and Miami dropped the most among all 20   cities.

Month-over-Month
The National and Composite Indices were both marginally negative in November. The 10 and 20-City Composites reported declines of -0.3% and -0.2%, while the National Index posted a decline of -0.1% for the month. Tampa led all cities in November with an increase of 0.8%. Chicago and Detroit offset those gains by reporting decreases of -1.1% and -0.9%  respectively.

“With the spring home buying season, and spring training, still a month or two away, the housing recovery is barely on first base,” says David Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Prospects for a home run in 2015 aren’t good. Strong price gains are limited to California, Florida, the Pacific Northwest, Denver, and Dallas. Most of the rest of the country is lagging the national index gains. Moreover, these price patterns have been in place since last spring. Existing home sales were lower in 2014 than 2013, confirming these  trends.

“Difficulties facing the housing recovery include continued low inventory levels and stiff mortgage qualification standards. Distressed sales and investor purchases for buy-to-rent declined somewhat in the fourth quarter. The best hope for housing is the rest of the economy where the news is better. 2014 was a good year for job creation and weekly unemployment claims – good short term indicators – which continue to provide upbeat reports. Consumer confidence, helped by cheap gasoline prices, is strong, and a good GDP number is expected this  week.”

Table 1 below summarizes the results for November 2014. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source  data.

November 2014

November/October

October/September

1-Year

Metropolitan Area

Level

Change (%)

Change (%)

Change (%)

Atlanta

118.95

0.2%

-0.2%

4.9%

Boston

175.45

-0.2%

-0.5%

4.0%

Charlotte

128.25

-0.3%

-0.2%

3.3%

Chicago

128.37

-1.1%

-1.1%

2.0%

Cleveland

106.38

-0.3%

-0.7%

0.6%

Dallas

142.75

0.1%

0.1%

7.7%

Denver

157.39

0.1%

0.5%

7.5%

Detroit

97.16

-0.9%

-0.2%

2.6%

Las Vegas

137.85

0.3%

0.1%

7.7%

Los Angeles

225.77

0.3%

0.2%

5.1%

Miami

191.13

0.6%

0.4%

8.6%

Minneapolis

141.12

-0.7%

-0.3%

1.5%

New York

175.33

-0.8%

-0.5%

1.5%

Phoenix

147.67

0.2%

0.1%

1.9%

Portland

170.44

0.1%

-0.3%

6.6%

San Diego

203.66

0.3%

-0.1%

4.9%

San Francisco

196.24

0.1%

0.8%

8.9%

Seattle

169.79

-0.4%

-0.1%

6.0%

Tampa

165.18

0.8%

0.8%

6.8%

Washington

207.48

-0.5%

-0.4%

1.9%

Composite-10

187.71

-0.3%

-0.2%

4.2%

Composite-20

172.94

-0.2%

-0.1%

4.3%

U.S. National

167.00

-0.1%

-0.2%

4.7%

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic

Data through November 2014

Table 2 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are  tracked.

November/October Change (%)

October/September Change (%)

Metropolitan Area

NSA

SA

NSA

SA

Atlanta

0.2%

1.7%

-0.2%

1.7%

Boston

-0.2%

0.8%

-0.5%

0.8%

Charlotte

-0.3%

0.8%

-0.2%

0.5%

Chicago

-1.1%

0.9%

-1.1%

0.4%

Cleveland

-0.3%

0.4%

-0.7%

0.5%

Dallas

0.1%

1.0%

0.1%

1.2%

Denver

0.1%

0.8%

0.5%

1.1%

Detroit

-0.9%

0.5%

-0.2%

0.5%

Las Vegas

0.3%

0.8%

0.1%

0.2%

Los Angeles

0.3%

1.0%

0.2%

0.7%

Miami

0.6%

0.8%

0.4%

1.1%

Minneapolis

-0.7%

0.1%

-0.3%

0.6%

New York

-0.8%

0.3%

-0.5%

0.2%

Phoenix

0.2%

0.4%

0.1%

0.2%

Portland

0.1%

1.0%

-0.3%

0.1%

San Diego

0.3%

0.8%

-0.1%

0.3%

San Francisco

0.1%

1.1%

0.8%

1.7%

Seattle

-0.4%

0.4%

-0.1%

0.8%

Tampa

0.8%

1.8%

0.8%

1.5%

Washington

-0.5%

0.5%

-0.4%

0.6%

Composite-10

-0.3%

0.7%

-0.2%

0.6%

Composite-20

-0.2%

0.7%

-0.1%

0.7%

U.S. National

-0.1%

0.8%

-0.2%

0.7%

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic

Data through November 2014

All opinions expressed on USDR are those of the author and not necessarily those of US Daily Review.