Real Estate Demand Shows Mixed Signals

By USDR

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for October 2014, shows that the pace of home prices across the country continues to decelerate although eight cities did see prices risefaster.

More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market can also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices’ housing blog: www.housingviews.com.

Year-over-Year
Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites saw year-over-year declines in October compared to September.  The 10-City Composite gained 4.4% year-over-year, down from 4.7% in September.  The 20-City Composite gained 4.5% year-over-year, compared to 4.8% in September. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 4.6% annual gain in October 2014 versus 4.8% in September.

Miami and San Francisco saw prices rise 9.5% and 9.1% over the last 12 months. Eight cities, including San Francisco, Denver, andTampa saw prices rise faster in the year to October than a month earlier.  Las Vegas led the declining annual returns with a decrease of-1.2%.

Month-over-Month
The National and Composite Indices were both slightly negative in October.  Both the 10 and 20-City Composites reported a slight downturn, -0.1%, while the National Index posted a -0.2% change for the month.  San Francisco and Tampa led all cities in October with increases of 0.8%.  Chicago and Cleveland offset those gains by reporting decreases of -1.0% and -0.7% respectively.

October recorded mixed monthly figures.  Ten cities recorded lower monthly figures while eight posted increases. Detroit and San Diego both reported flat monthly changes.  San Francisco had the largest increase of all 20 cities at 0.8%month-over-month.

“After a long period when home prices rose, but at a slower pace with each passing month, we are seeing hints that prices could end 2014 on a strong note and accelerate into 2015,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Two months ago, all 20 cities were experiencing weakening annual price increases., Last month, 18 experienced weakness. This time, 12 cities had weaker annual price growth, but eight saw the pace of price gains pick up.  Seasonally adjusted, all 20 cities had higher prices than a monthago.

“Most national economic statistics, other than those connected to housing, posted positive reports in November and early December.  Third quarter GDP was revised to 5% real growth at annual rates, and unemployment was at 5.8% as payrolls added over 300,000 jobs in November. Housing was somber: housing starts pulled back 1.6%, existing home sales were at 4.93 million, down 6.1%, and new home sales were 438,000, down 1.6%, all inNovember.”

Table 1 below summarizes the results for October 2014.  The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional sourcedata.

October 2014

October/September

September/August

1-Year

Metropolitan Area

Level

Change (%)

Change (%)

Change (%)

Atlanta

118.80

-0.2%

-0.3%

4.5%

Boston

175.76

-0.5%

-0.1%

4.4%

Charlotte

128.64

-0.2%

0.5%

2.8%

Chicago

129.86

-1.0%

-0.3%

1.9%

Cleveland

106.76

-0.7%

0.0%

0.9%

Dallas

142.56

0.1%

0.3%

7.6%

Denver

157.24

0.5%

0.2%

7.2%

Detroit

98.21

0.0%

-0.5%

3.6%

Las Vegas

137.40

0.1%

0.4%

8.0%

Los Angeles

225.13

0.2%

0.0%

4.9%

Miami

190.09

0.4%

0.6%

9.5%

Minneapolis

142.24

-0.3%

0.0%

2.3%

New York

176.78

-0.5%

-0.1%

2.0%

Phoenix

147.54

0.1%

-0.1%

2.1%

Portland

170.35

-0.3%

0.2%

6.2%

San Diego

203.15

0.0%

-0.1%

4.7%

San Francisco

195.97

0.8%

-0.1%

9.1%

Seattle

170.39

-0.1%

-0.2%

6.2%

Tampa

163.85

0.8%

0.2%

6.1%

Washington

208.82

-0.3%

-0.5%

2.2%

Composite-10

188.22

-0.1%

-0.1%

4.4%

Composite-20

173.36

-0.1%

-0.1%

4.5%

U.S. National

167.11

-0.2%

-0.1%

4.6%

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic

Data through October 2014

Table 2 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices.  For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that aretracked.

October/September Change (%)

September/August Change (%)

Metropolitan Area

NSA

SA

NSA

SA

Atlanta

-0.2%

1.9%

-0.3%

1.0%

Boston

-0.5%

0.7%

-0.1%

0.5%

Charlotte

-0.2%

0.4%

0.5%

1.2%

Chicago

-1.0%

0.4%

-0.3%

0.1%

Cleveland

-0.7%

0.5%

0.0%

0.8%

Dallas

0.1%

1.1%

0.3%

0.8%

Denver

0.5%

1.2%

0.2%

0.7%

Detroit

0.0%

0.6%

-0.5%

-0.4%

Las Vegas

0.1%

0.1%

0.4%

0.4%

Los Angeles

0.2%

0.7%

0.0%

0.2%

Miami

0.4%

1.1%

0.6%

1.1%

Minneapolis

-0.3%

0.7%

0.0%

0.1%

New York

-0.5%

0.1%

-0.1%

-0.1%

Phoenix

0.1%

0.2%

-0.1%

0.2%

Portland

-0.3%

0.1%

0.2%

0.4%

San Diego

0.0%

0.3%

-0.1%

0.0%

San Francisco

0.8%

1.7%

-0.1%

0.6%

Seattle

-0.1%

0.7%

-0.2%

0.3%

Tampa

0.8%

1.6%

0.2%

0.8%

Washington

-0.3%

0.8%

-0.5%

-0.1%

Composite-10

-0.1%

0.7%

-0.1%

0.2%

Composite-20

-0.1%

0.8%

-0.1%

0.2%

U.S. National

-0.2%

0.7%

-0.1%

0.6%

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic

Data through October 2014

All opinions expressed on USDR are those of the author and not necessarily those of US Daily Review.
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