The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.K. increased 0.4 percent in October, after increasing 1.7 percent in September and 1.3 percent in August. Six of the seven components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index now stands at 108.4 (2004=100).
“The Leading Economic Index for the UK rose for four months in a row, fueling optimism about the recovery of the economy,” said Bert Colijn, economist with The Conference Board. “Slowing improvements in consumer confidence and new orders components, and declining output expectations resulted in a smaller month on month growth rate in the LEI in October, pointing to moderate growth in the U.K. economy in early 2014.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in October, after increasing 0.2 percent in September and 0.1 percent in August. The index now stands at 105.2 (2004 = 100).
The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:
Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)
Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and eleven other countries, including Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.
For more information: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm
For full press release: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=2
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.
| Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes | ||||||||
| 2013 | 6-month | |||||||
| Aug | Sep | Oct | Apr to Oct | |||||
| Leading Economic Index (LEI) | 106.2 | p | 108.0 | p | 108.4 | p | ||
| Percent Change | 1.3 | p | 1.7 | p | 0.4 | p | 4.4 | p |
| Diffusion | 100.0 | 100.0 | 85.7 | 100.0 | ||||
| Coincident Economic Index (CEI) | 104.9 | p | 105.1 | p | 105.2 | p | ||
| Percent Change | 0.1 | p | 0.2 | p | 0.1 | p | 1.3 | p |
| Diffusion | 50.0 | 100.0 | 75.0 | 100.0 | ||||
| n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised | ||||||||
| Indexes equal 100 in 2004 | ||||||||
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