The Groundhog Effect

By National Association of Realtors, Special for USDR

Can a groundhog and his shadow predict the strength of the housing market? Here is what happened the past 20 years in real estate when Punxsutawney Phil climbed out of his hole; does seeing his shadow extend to real estate? You decide.

Shadow of a Doubt: Groundhog Day and Real Estate

Year

Shadow

Home Sales

Increase

Home Price

Increase

Year

Shadow

Home Sales

Home Prices

1996

Yes

8.3

4.6

2007

No

-22.3

-1.3

1997

No

5.0

5.2

2008

Yes

-18.3

-9.5

1998

Yes

13.5

5.3

2009

Yes

5.6

-12.9

1999

No

4.3

3.9

2010

Yes

-3.5

0.2

2000

Yes

-0.1

4.1

2011

No

1.7

-3.9

2001

Yes

3.1

6.6

2012

Yes

9.4

6.4

2002

Yes

5.6

7.7

2013

No

9.2

11.5

2003

Yes

9.6

8.4

2014

Yes

-2.9

5.7

2004

Yes

9.7

9.3

2015

Yes

6.3

6.8

2005

Yes

4.5

12.4

2016

No

3.8

5.2

2006

Yes

-8.5

1.0

Sees no shadow

0.3

3.4

Sees a shadow

2.8

3.7

*Averages based on YoY median sales price and median existing home sales increases from 1996-2016.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

Information about NAR is available at www.realtor.org. This and other news releases are posted in the “News, Blogs and Videos” tab on the  website. 

SOURCE National Association of Realtors

All opinions expressed on USDR are those of the author and not necessarily those of US Daily Review.
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