Bad News for Mexico’s Economy


The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 1.8 percent in June to 123.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent decline in May, and a 0.9 percent decline in April.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, declined 0.1 percent in June to 123.0 (2004 = 100), following no change in May and April.

The LEI for Mexico has been declining for three consecutive months, and its six-month growth rate has dipped slightly into the negative territory. However, the strengths among its components still remain widespread. Meanwhile, the CEI for Mexico has been virtually flat in the first half of 2013, with its six-month growth rate decelerating and weaknesses among its components widespread. Taken together, the recent declines in the LEI and CEI suggest that although the economy will continue to expand in the near-term, the rate of expansion is likely to be more modest.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Mexico include:

Industrial Production, Construction Component
Stock Prices
U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil
Net Insufficient Inventories
Federal Funds Rate
Real Exchange Rate

For more information including full press release and technical notes:

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:

Summary Table of Composite Indexes
2013 6-month
Apr May Jun Dec to Jun
Leading Index 126.2 r 125.4 r 123.2
  Percent Change -0.9 r -0.6 -1.8 -0.3
  Diffusion 33.3 r 41.7 8.3 66.7
Coincident Index 123.1 123.1 r 123.0 p
  Percent Change 0.0 r 0.0 r -0.1 p 0.2 p
  Diffusion 33.3 33.3 33.3 33.3
n.a. Not available       p Preliminary       r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
All opinions expressed on USDR are those of the author and not necessarily those of US Daily Review.

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