By CoreLogic, Special for USDR
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices, including distressed sales, are projected to increase by 0.9 percent month over month from May 2015 to June 2015 and by 5.1 percent** on a year-over-year basis from May 2015 to May 2016. Excluding distressed sales, home prices are projected to increase by 0.8 percent month over month from May 2015 to June 2015 and by 4.7 percent** year over year from May 2015 to May 2016. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.
“Mortgage rates on 30-year fixed-rate loans remained below 4 percent through May, helping to fuel home-purchase activity,” said Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Our homes-for-sale listing data shows that markets with high demand and limited supply, such as San Francisco, are recording double-digit appreciation rates over the past year.”
“The rate of home price appreciation ticked up in May with gains being fairly widely distributed across the country. Importantly, higher home prices over the past couple of years have spurred increases in new single-family construction,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Sales of newly built homes during the first five months of 2015 were up 23 percent from a year ago, and as rising values build equity for homeowners, we expect to see more existing homes offered for sale in the coming year.”
Highlights as of May 2015:
- Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: South Carolina (+10.3 percent), Colorado (+9.8 percent), Washington (+8.8 percent), Florida (+8.7 percent) and Nevada (+8.3 percent).
- Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: South Carolina (+9.6 percent), Colorado (+9.2 percent), Florida (+8.9 percent), Washington (+8.5 percent) and Oregon (+7.9 percent).
- Including distressed sales, only five states experienced home price depreciation including: Massachusetts (-4.8 percent), Connecticut (-1.8 percent), Maryland (-1.5 percent), Mississippi (-1.4 percent) and Louisiana (-0.8 percent).
- Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to May 2015) was -8.4 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change for the same period was -4.7 percent.
- The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were: Nevada (-32.9 percent), Florida (-28.8 percent), Rhode Island (-27.5 percent), Arizona (-26 percent) and Maryland (-23.1 percent).
- Of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population, 92 showed year-over-year increases. The eight CBSAs that showed year-over-year declines were: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD (-1.8 percent); Boston, MA (-4.8 percent); Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT (-0.32 percent); Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA (-2.9 percent); Camden, NJ (-0.96 percent); New Orleans-Metairie, LA (-6.4 percent); Silver Spring-Frederick-Rockville, MD (-0.31 percent) and Worcester, MA-CT (-6.6 percent).
*April data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.
** The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2.0 percent margin of error for the index including distressed sales and a +/- 2.0 percent margin of error for the index excluding distressed sales.
May HPI for the Country’s Largest CBSAs by Population (Ranked by Single Family Including Distressed)
May National and State HPI (Ranked by Single Family Including Distressed)
Figure 1: Home Price Index Percentage Change Year Over Year
Figure 2: YoY HPI Growth for 25 Fastest-Appreciating States Min, Max, Current Since January 1976
Map 1 – May 2015 CoreLogic HPI Single-Family Combined Series Peak-to-Current Declines 12-Month Change by State
Map 2 – May 2015 Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Series Peak-to-Current Declines 12-Month Change by State
The CoreLogic HPI™ incorporates more than 30 years’ worth of repeat sales transactions, representing more than 65 million observations sourced from CoreLogic industry-leading property information and its securities and servicing databases. The CoreLogic HPI provides a multi-tier market evaluation based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. nonconforming) and distressed sales. The CoreLogic HPI is a repeat-sales index that tracks increases and decreases in sales prices for the same homes over time, including single-family attached and single-family detached homes, which provides a more accurate “constant-quality” view of pricing trends than basing analysis on all home sales. The CoreLogic HPI provides the most comprehensive set of monthly home price indices available covering 7,311 ZIP codes (60 percent of total U.S. population), 658 Core Based Statistical Areas (89 percent of total U.S. population) and 1,293 counties (86 percent of total U.S. population) located in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Forecast ranges provided in this report are based on a 95 percent confidence interval.
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CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 3.5 billion records spanning more than 40 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
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