Germany’s Economy in Decline

By US Daily Review Staff.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany declined 0.1 percent in May to 104.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent decrease in April, and a 0.2 percent increase in March.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in May to 107.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in April, and 0.3 percent increase in March.

Chancellor Angela Merkel

The Conference Board LEI for Germany decreased for the second consecutive month, though its six-month growth rate remains in positive territory because of earlier gains. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Germany edged up in May, its fourth increase in five months. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes for Germany suggests that economic activity will probably continue to expand, though the rate of growth may moderate in the near term.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for Germany

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for Germany include:

New Orders, Investment Goods

Yield Spread cumulated, 10 year minus 3 month

Change in Inventories

Gross Enterprise and Property Income

Stock Prices

New Orders, Residential Construction

Consumer Confidence Index

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

For more information including full press release and technical notes:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=4

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

Summary Table of Composite Indexes
2012  6-month
  Mar  Apr May Sep to May
Leading Economic Index (LEI) 104.9 p 104.4 p 104.3 p
  Percent Change 0.2 p -0.5 p -0.1 p 1.7 p
  Diffusion 85.7 42.9 57.1 92.9
Coincident Economic Index (CEI) 107.3 r 107.1 107.2
  Percent Change 0.3 r -0.2 r 0.1 0.7
  Diffusion 75.0 25.0 50.0 50.0
n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved
All opinions expressed on USDR are those of the author and not necessarily those of US Daily Review.

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