How Do Bloggers See the Economic Future?

By US Daily Review Staff. Source: Hudson Institute.

Pessimism marks the attitudes of top economics bloggers in a new quarterly survey conducted over the last 48 hours by Dr. Tim Kane at Hudson Institute. Three of four respondents describe the U.S. economy as “mixed,” while the same number think it is “facing recession” as believe it is “strong with uncertain growth.” Worse, only 6 percent of respondents believe the economy is “better than official government statistics show,” while 33 percent think it is worse.

“After nearly three years of seeing how ahead of the curve this disorganized group is, I’d match their insights and wisdom against anyone,” said Kane. “The beauty of the economics blogging community is its ideological diversity, where a majority of bloggers favor fighting inequality in the United States while at the same time mocking the gimmicky ‘Buffet Rule.’ What really should catch our attention is the long-term skepticism the bloggers have about a strong or easy recovery, particularly inEurope.”

Research highlights include:

  • Over the next three years, bloggers do anticipate mild growth in U.S. output, employment, and labor force participation. On the other hand, more respondents than not see higher budget deficits and more poverty over the next three years as well.
  • Bloggers anticipate a recession in 2012 as most likely in the Eurozone, followed closely by Argentina, with four other economies far less likely (the United States, China, Japan, and developing economies).
  • Policy recommendations of the bloggers for the United States tend to favor defense cuts, doing more to reduce inequality, and allowing states to set their own minimum wages. Most tax reforms were panned by the group, notably the “Buffet Rule” which was opposed by 59 percent of respondents (with more strong opposition than any other policy). Adopting a flat tax or a value-added tax were also unpopular ideas, though the group did generally endorse capping tax deductions and credits per household.
  • Jeff Miller (A Dash of Insight) asked a question about Federal Reserve policy. A surprisingly large majority of economics bloggers believe the presidential election slightly affects monetary policy by shaping perceptions of the economy.
  • One question asked bloggers to identify the partisan voting on 9 key pieces of legislation over the last 12 years. Every one of the four major pieces of legislation advanced under President Barack Obama were ranked as sharply more partisan than the five major pieces of legislation advanced under President George W. Bush.

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All opinions expressed on USDR are those of the author and not necessarily those of US Daily Review.

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