Housing Boom is Starting to Chill


Existing-home sales declined in January to their lowest rate in nine months, but the pace was higher than a year ago for the fourth straight month, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All major regions experienced declines in January, with the Northeast and West seeing the  largest.

Total existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 4.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.82 million in January (lowest since last May at 4.90 million) from an upwardly-revised 5.07 million in December. Despite January’s decline, sales are higher by 3.2 percent than a year  ago.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the housing market got off to a somewhat disappointing start to begin the year with January closings down throughout the country. “January housing data can be volatile because of seasonal influences, but low housing supply and the ongoing rise in home prices above the pace of inflation appeared to slow sales despite interest rates remaining near historic lows,” he said. “Realtors® are reporting that low rates are attracting potential buyers, but the lack of new and affordable listings is leading some to delay  decisions.”

Total housing inventory2 at the end of January increased 0.5 percent to 1.87 million existing homes available for sale, but is 0.5 percent lower than a year ago (1.88 million). Unsold inventory is at a 4.7-month supply at the current sales pace – up from 4.4 months in  December.

The median existing-home price3 for all housing types in January was $199,600, which is 6.2 percent above January 2014. This marks the 35th consecutive month of year-over-year price  gains.

“Although sales cooled in January, home prices continued solid year-over-year growth,” adds Yun. “The labor market and economy are markedly improved compared to a year ago, which supports stronger buyer demand. The big test for housing will be the impact on affordability once rates  rise.”

According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage in January fell to 3.67 percent, its lowest level since May 2013 (3.54 percent), and down from 3.86 percent in December. The average annual rate was 4.17 percent in  2014.

The percent share of first-time buyers declined to 28 percent in January, the lowest since June 2014 (also 28 percent) and down from 29 percent in December. First-time buyers represented 26 percent of sales last  January.

NAR President Chris Polychron, executive broker with 1st Choice Realty in Hot Springs, Ark. says that the Federal Housing Administration’s overly restrictive approval process limits buyers’ access to condos even though these properties are among the strongest in the agency’s portfolio. “Condominiums offer an affordable option and are the first step to homeownership for many homebuyers,” said Polychron. “NAR has urged the FHA to develop policies that will give buyers access to more flexible and affordable financing opportunities and a wider choice of approved condo  developments.”

All-cash sales were 27 percent of transactions in January, up from 26 percent in December but down from 33 percent in January of last year. Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 17 percent of homes in January, unchanged from last month and below January 2014 (20 percent). Sixty-seven percent of investors paid cash in  January.

Distressed sales5 – foreclosures and short sales – were 11 percent of sales in January, unchanged from last month but down from 15 percent a year ago. Eight percent of January sales were foreclosures and 3 percent were short sales. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 15 percent below market value in January (unchanged from December), while short sales were discounted 12 percent (also unchanged from last  month).

Properties typically stayed on the market slightly longer in January (69 days) than December (66 days) and a year ago (67 days). Short sales were on the market the longest at a median of 128 days in January, while foreclosures sold in 63 days and non-distressed homes took 68 days. Thirty percent of homes sold in January were on the market for less than a  month.

Single-family and Condo/Co-op  Sales

Single-family home sales dropped 5.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.27 million in January from 4.50 million in December, but are 3.9 percent above the 4.11 million pace a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $199,800in January, up 6.3 percent from January  2014.

Existing condominium and co-op sales declined 3.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 550,000 units in January from 570,000 in December, and are now 1.8 percent below a year ago. The median existing condo price was $198,300 in January, which is 5.3 percent higher than a year  ago.

Regional  Breakdown

January existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 6.0 percent to an annual rate of 630,000, but are 3.3 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $247,800, which is 2.7 percent above a year  ago.

In the Midwest, existing-home sales declined 2.7 percent to an annual level of 1.08 million in January, but are still 0.9 percent aboveJanuary 2014. The median price in the Midwest was $151,300, up 8.2 percent from a year  ago.

Existing-home sales in the South decreased 4.6 percent to an annual rate of 2.07 million in January, but are still 5.6 percent aboveJanuary 2014. The median price in the South was $171,900, up 7.4 percent from a year  ago.

Existing-home sales in the West dropped 7.1 percent to an annual rate of 1.04 million in January, but are still 1.0 percent above a year ago. The median price in the West was $291,800, which is 7.2 percent above January  2014.

NOTE:  For local information, please contact the local association of Realtors® for data from local multiple listing services. Local MLS data is the most accurate source of sales and price information in specific areas, although there may be differences in reporting  methodology.

1Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings from Multiple Listing Services. Changes in sales trends outside of MLSs are not captured in the monthly series. NAR rebenchmarks home sales periodically using other sources to assess overall home sales trends, including sales not reported by MLSs.

Existing-home sales, based on closings, differ from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which account for more than 90 percent of total home sales, are based on a much larger data sample – about 40 percent of multiple listing service data each month – and typically are not subject to large prior-month  revisions.

The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather  patterns.

Single-family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single-family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for  condos.

2Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982 (prior to 1999, single-family sales accounted for more than 90 percent of transactions and condos were measured only on a quarterly  basis).

3The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical of market conditions than average prices, which are skewed higher by a relatively small share of upper-end transactions. The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if additional data is  received.

The national median condo/co-op price often is higher than the median single-family home price because condos are concentrated in higher-cost housing markets. However, in a given area, single-family homes typically sell for more than condos as seen in NAR’s quarterly metro area price  reports.

4Distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales), days on market, first-time buyers, all-cash transactions and investors are from a monthly survey for the NAR’s Realtors® Confidence Index, posted at  Realtor.org.

The Pending Home Sales Index for January will be released February 27, and Existing-Home Sales for February are scheduled forMarch 23; release times are 10:00 a.m.  ET.

Information about NAR is available at www.realtor.org. This and other news releases are posted in the “News, Blogs and Videos” tab on the website. Statistical data in this release, as well as other tables and surveys, are posted in the “Research and Statistics”  tab.

All opinions expressed on USDR are those of the author and not necessarily those of US Daily Review.