By US Daily Review Staff.
Mitt Romney maintains his lead over Barack Obama at 45.6% to 41.1% among Likely Voters, according to the most recent American Pulse Survey (July-12, N=3,688). A factor contributing to Romney’s lead appears to be a loss of support among Blacks, Hispanics and Women who voted for Obama in 2008. Gaining support among Black Voters will be an uphill battle for Romney as Obama carried 96% of their vote in 2008. 81.5% of Likely Black Voters, however, currently say that they would cast a ballot for the incumbent if the election were held today.
Of Blacks (Non-Hispanic) who voted for Obama in 2008 and are likely to vote in 2012, 14.7% report they are undecided between the incumbent and the challenger, translating to an estimated 2,416,727 voters. Further, 1.8% (295,904) would cast a vote for Romney, for a combined total of approximately 2.7 million at-risk votes.
It seems as though there is some uncertainty among Obama’s 2008 Hispanic supporters as well. 67% of Hispanics voted for Obama in 2008. When asked who they would vote for today, 60.5% of Likely Hispanic Voters would re-elect the president. Of the Hispanics who voted for Obama in 2008 and are likely to vote in 2012, 8.5% say they are undecided, translating to an estimated 1,252,036 voters. Further, 7.0% (1,033,993) would vote for Romney for a collective 2.3 million votes at risk.
According to the analysis, an estimated 3.7 million voters who supported Obama in 2008 are undecided when you combine Non-Hispanic Blacks and Hispanics. This could signal bad news for the President as historically, the majority of undecided voters tend to swing towards the challenger on Election Day.
ESTIMATED # OF VOTES
2008 Obama Supporters
Blacks (Non-Hispanic)
Undecided: 2,416,727
Vote for Romney: 295,904
Hispanics
Undecided: 1,252,036
Vote for Romney:1,033,993
Whites (Non-Hispanic)
Undecided: 7,192,854
Vote for Romney: 6,139,217
TOTAL
Undecided: 10,861,618
Vote for Romney:7,469,114
Source: American Pulse™ Analytics
When you factor in Non-Hispanic Whites who voted for Obama but are now either undecided or voting for Romney, the total estimated number of at-risk votes for Obama surpasses 18 million. Compared to the total number of votes cast for Obama in 2008, it accounts for 26% of his total ballots now being at-risk.
For full complimentary report that includes how these segments view the Obama Administration’s healthcare plan, click here.
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