October New-Car Sales Expected To Jump 12 Percent, According To Kelley Blue Book

By USDR

New-vehicle sales are expected to improve 11.7 percent in October to a total of 1.22 million units, according to Kelley Blue Book www.kbb.com, the leading provider of new and used car information.  Following the first year-over-year decline in 27 months in September, new-car sales should begin to bounce back in October, despite the federal government's shutdown earlier in the month.  Helping sales, this October has one more selling day than last year, and in 2012, numbers were heavily affected by Hurricane Sandy's impact on the East Coast.  Barring another economic setback, industry sales remain on track to reach about 15.6 million units in 2013.

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Key Highlights for Estimated October 2013 Sales Forecast:

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  • In October, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,220,000 units, up 11.7 percent from October 2012and up 7.4 percent from September 2013.
  • The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for October 2013 is estimated to be 15.4 million, up from 14.3 million inOctober 2012 and up from 15.2 million in September 2013.
  • Retail sales are expected to account for 84 percent of sales in October 2013.

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Toyota, Ford Show Greatest Gains in October 2013
Most manufacturers will enjoy healthy sales growth in October.  Toyota, whose Camry and all-new Corolla topped the mid-size and compact car segments last month, could post the greatest improvement from last year at 15.9 percent.

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Ford also is expected to report excellent sales results this month, driven largely by the demand for their F-Series as well as the recently redesigned Fusion and Escape.  Chrysler, Honda and Nissan also are expected to post double-digit gains, largely on the heels of new redesigns and introductions such as the Jeep Cherokee, Honda Accord and Nissan Altima.

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“The government shutdown didn't impact consumers growing appetite for buying new vehicles,” said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book.  “The expectations were that car buyers would wait on the sidelines, but because of pent-up demand and credit availability, car sales are expected to increase 7 percent from last month.”

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Sales Volume 1 Market Share 2
Manufacturer Oct-13 Oct-12 YOY % Oct-13 Oct-12 YOY %
General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) 212,000 195,764 8.3% 17.4% 17.9% -0.5%
Ford Motor Company (Ford, Lincoln) 191,000 167,947 13.7% 15.7% 15.4% 0.3%
Toyota Motor Company (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) 180,000 155,242 15.9% 14.8% 14.2% 0.5%
Chrysler Group (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, RAM) 142,000 126,185 12.5% 11.6% 11.6% 0.1%
American Honda (Acura, Honda) 120,000 106,973 12.2% 9.8% 9.8% 0.0%
Nissan North America (Infiniti, Nissan) 90,000 79,685 12.9% 7.4% 7.3% 0.1%
Hyundai-Kia 95,000 92,723 2.5% 7.8% 8.5% -0.7%
Volkswagen Group (Audi, Volkswagen) 48,000 46,019 4.3% 3.9% 4.2% -0.3%
Total 3 1,220,000 1,092,294 11.7%
Historical data from OEM sales announcements
2 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
3 Includes brands not shown

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Small Crossovers Continue to Shine; Full-Size Pickup Truck Growth Slows
Continuing its trend, sales of compact crossovers will have the biggest improvement in October, with an expected gain of more than 25 percent.

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“Consumers are drawn to the new models in the crossover segment, which feature increasingly efficient engines, yet have more cargo space and a higher ride height than their car counterparts,” said Gutierrez.  “Meanwhile, after many months of 20 percent gains this year, the full-size pickup truck market is showing signs of slightly slower growth as we move into the 2014 model year.”

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Although General Motors has its new Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra on the market, the impact of a recent $1,500manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP) increase on these trucks remains to be seen.  Although the growth in the pickup truck sales appears to be slowing on the surface, sales were already beginning to heat up in the fourth quarter of 2012, so year-over-year comparisons will naturally subside as time goes on.

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Sales Volume 1 Market Share
Segment Oct-13 Oct-12 YOY % Oct-13 Oct-12 YOY %
Mid-Size Car 189,000 171,085 10.5% 15.5% 15.7% -0.2%
Compact Car 178,000 157,214 13.2% 14.6% 14.4% 0.2%
Compact Crossover 150,000 118,603 26.5% 12.3% 10.9% 1.4%
Full-Size Pickup Truck 166,000 147,199 12.8% 13.6% 13.5% 0.1%
Subcompact Car 54,000 47,107 14.6% 4.4% 4.3% 0.1%
Total 2 1,220,000 1,092,294 11.7%
1 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
2 Includes segments not shown
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All opinions expressed on USDR are those of the author and not necessarily those of US Daily Review.