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By Harris Interactive, Special for US Daily Review.

The candidates may be spending Thanksgiving in Iowa or New Hampshire instead of at home this year as the primary calendar quickly comes to an end with just six weeks until the first votes are cast. As noted last month, each month the story line seems to take a new shift, and yet again this month we have another new story with the rise of Newt Gingrich.

Among Republicans, one in five (19%) would vote for Godfather Pizza CEO Herman Cain in the GOP primary while 16% would vote for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and 15% would vote for former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. Other candidates are all under 10% including Rick Perry (9%), Ron Paul (5%), Michele Bachman (2%), Jon Huntsman (2%), Rick Santorum (1%) and Gary Johnson at less than 1%. Three in ten Republicans (30%), however, are still not at all sure who they would vote for in the Republican primary.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,499 adults surveyed online between November 7 and 14, 2011 by Harris Interactive .

Among Independents, 15% would vote for Mitt Romney, 13% for Herman Cain and 11% for Ron Paul with 7% voting for Newt Gingrich. Two in five Independents (40%) are not at all sure who they would vote for in the primary. Among Conservatives, one in five (19%) say they would vote for Herman Cain, 15% would vote for Newt Gingrich and 12% for Mitt Romney. Just under one-quarter of Tea Party supporters (23%) would vote for Herman Cain in the Republican primary, 14% would each vote for Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich while 27% are not at all sure.

Showing there is some concern among party faithful about the candidates, when asked which candidate they would never vote for, each candidate has almost one in five Republicans and Conservatives saying they would never vote for them. Among the front-runners, one in five Republicans (19%) and one-quarter of Conservatives (24%) would never vote for Mitt Romney. One-quarter of both Republicans (25%) and Conservatives (26%) would never vote for Herman Cain while 23% of both Conservatives and Republicans would never vote for Newt Gingrich.

Head to head match-ups

Looking at some specific candidates versus President Obama, Mitt Romney is the closest competitor. If the presidential election were held today, 41% of Americans would vote for President Obama, 41% would vote for Mitt Romney and 18% are not at all sure. This is very close to last month when 41% said they would vote for the President and 40% would vote for Mitt Romney. Looking at the probable swing states for 2012, 44% of people from those states would vote for Mitt Romney and 39% would vote for President Obama while 17% are not at all sure.

If Ron Paul is the eventual Republican nominee, 40% of Americans would vote for President Obama and 38% would vote for Ron Raul with one in five (21%) not at all sure. Last month, 41% said they would vote for the President and 36% for Ron Paul. Among the swing states for next year 44% would vote for Ron Paul and 36% would vote for President Obama, with 20% not at all sure.

Between Rick Perry and President Obama, 44% of U.S. adults would vote for the President while 38% would vote for the Texas Governor and one in five Americans (19%) say they are not at all sure. In October, 45% said they would vote for President Obama and 36% for Rick Perry. In the 2012 swing states, more than two in five (43%) would vote for President Obama and 39% would vote for Rick Perry.

Herman Cain may still be on top among the Republican nominees, but in a head to head match-up he is the farthest behind the President as 44% of Americans would vote for President Obama and 34% would vote for Herman Cain with 22% saying they are not at all sure. Among the 2012 swing states, 43% would vote for the President while 37% would vote for Herman Cain.

So What?

Ah, Thanksgiving; the time of year which traditionally brings families together around the table to celebrate and give thanks. But this year it also means the beginning of the final few weeks of campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire before the first votes are cast. As the candidates compete with holiday planning to get voters’ attention, one thing to stress is how they will do in a general election. Here Mitt Romney clearly has the best story, with Ron Paul a close second. While Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich may be doing well in the primary, the real question for Republicans is can they beat President Obama? Right now the answer appears to be no.

TABLE 1 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTION “If you were voting in the Republican primary election and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?” Base: All adults
	Total Nov 2011	Political Party			Political Philosophy			Tea Party Support
	Total Nov 2011	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Cons.	Mod.	Lib.	Tea Party Support
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Mitt Romney	14	16	15	15	12	16	14	14
Herman Cain	11	19	5	13	19	9	3	23
Ron Paul	8	5	7	11	7	8	10	8
Newt Gingrich	7	15	2	7	15	5	1	14
Jon Huntsman, Jr.	6	2	10	5	2	6	12	2
Rick Perry	4	9	2	4	7	3	3	7
Michele Bachmann	2	2	2	2	2	1	5	3
Gary Johnson	1	*	1	1	1	*	2	*
Rick Santorum	*	1	*	*	1	*	*	*
Not at all sure	47	30	58	40	35	53	51	27
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; * indicates less than 0.5%

TABLE 2 REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES PEOPLE WOULD NEVER VOTE FOR “Assuming these were candidates in the 2012 presidential election, who would you never vote for?” Base: All adults
	Total Nov 2011	Political Party			Political Philosophy			Tea Party Support
	Total Nov 2011	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Cons.	Mod.	Lib.	Tea Party Support
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Michele Bachmann	48	32	65	49	28	53	70	29
Herman Cain	42	25	61	39	26	43	66	22
Newt Gingrich	42	23	63	39	23	44	69	22
Rick Perry	38	18	57	36	21	39	62	19
Ron Paul	32	27	40	31	30	29	44	26
Rick Santorum	30	16	43	31	19	30	50	21
Mitt Romney	28	19	38	26	24	27	39	22
Gary Johnson	27	23	34	24	23	25	37	22
Jon Huntsman, Jr.	26	23	31	23	24	24	32	22
I would vote for all of these candidates	18	24	8	17	24	18	10	24
Note: Percentages may not add up to 10047% due to rounding; * indicates less than 0.5%

TABLE 3A ROMNEY VS. OBAMA “If the presidential election were held today and these were the two candidates, for whom would you most likely vote?” Base: All adults
	Total Oct	Total Nov	Party ID			Philosophy
	Total Oct	Total Nov	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Cons.	Mod.	Lib.
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Mitt Romney	40	41	82	11	45	71	34	10
Barack Obama	41	41	6	81	33	11	45	80
Not at all sure	18	18	13	9	22	18	22	10
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 3B ROMNEY VS. OBAMA “If the presidential election were held today and these were the two candidates, for whom would you most likely vote?” Base: All adults
	Total	Partisan		Swing States
	Total	Mod./ Ind.	Cons./ Tea Party	2012	5% in 2008
	%	%	%	%	%
Mitt Romney	41	36	92	44	43
Barack Obama	41	37	–	39	41
Not at all sure	18	27	8	17	16
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia; 5% states in 2008 are Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio; – indicates no response

TABLE 4A PERRY VS. OBAMA “If the presidential election were held today and these were the two candidates, for whom would you most likely vote?” Base: All adults
	Total Oct	Total Nov	Party ID			Philosophy
	Total Oct	Total Nov	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Cons.	Mod.	Lib.
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Barack Obama	45	44	6	83	40	11	51	80
Rick Perry	36	38	80	7	40	70	28	8
Not at all sure	19	19	14	10	21	18	22	12
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 4B PERRY VS. OBAMA “If the presidential election were held today and these were the two candidates, for whom would you most likely vote?” Base: All adults
	Total	Partisan		Swing States
	Total	Mod./ Ind.	Cons./ Tea Party	2012	5% in 2008
	%	%	%	%	%
Barack Obama	44	49	–	43	45
Rick Perry	38	30	93	39	38
Not at all sure	19	22	7	18	18
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia; 5% states in 2008 are Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio; – indicates no response

TABLE 5A PAUL VS. OBAMA “If the presidential election were held today and these were the two candidates, for whom would you most likely vote?” Base: All adults
	Total Oct	Total Nov	Party ID			Philosophy
	Total Oct	Total Nov	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Cons.	Mod.	Lib.
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Barack Obama	41	40	6	80	34	10	45	78
Ron Paul	36	38	73	9	44	67	31	11
Not at all sure	23	21	21	10	22	23	25	11
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 5B PAUL VS. OBAMA “If the presidential election were held today and these were the two candidates, for whom would you most likely vote?” Base: All adults
	Total	Partisan		Swing States
	Total	Mod./ Ind.	Cons./ Tea Party	2012	5% in 2008
	%	%	%	%	%
Barack Obama	40	40	–	36	38
Ron Paul	38	37	84	44	43
Not at all sure	21	24	16	20	19
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia; 5% states in 2008 are Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio; – indicates no response

TABLE 6A CAIN VS. OBAMA “If the presidential election were held today and these were the two candidates, for whom would you most likely vote?” Base: All adults
	Total Oct	Total Nov	Party ID			Philosophy
	Total Oct	Total Nov	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Cons.	Mod.	Lib.
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Barack Obama	43	44	7	82	40	12	49	83
Herman Cain	35	34	71	7	37	66	26	4
Not at all sure	22	22	22	11	23	22	25	13
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 6B CAIN VS. OBAMA “If the presidential election were held today and these were the two candidates, for whom would you most likely vote?” Base: All adults
	Total	Partisan		Swing States
	Total	Mod./ Ind.	Cons./ Tea Party	2012	5% in 2008
	%	%	%	%	%
Barack Obama	44	47	–	43	45
Herman Cain	34	30	93	37	36
Not at all sure	22	24	7	19	20
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia; 5% states in 2008 are Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio; – indicates no response

Methodology
This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between November 7 and 14, 2011 among 2,499 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words “margin of error” as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.