Forecasts of Ethanol Production

By USDR

U.S. ethanol production data, to be reported Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), for the week ended October 18 is expected to total 861,000 barrels per day (b/d), according to forecasts* published in BiofuelscanPlatts’ flagship daily report covering the global biofuels markets. This would represent a 0.58% increase from last week’s Bentek Energy ethanol production forecast.

Corn futures prices have hovered near three-year lows and rising crush margins – the price difference between a gallon of ethanol and gallon of corn — have combined to boost ethanol production in recent weeks.

The Bentek Energy ethanol production figure has risen for four of the past five weeks, and it is expected to rise further, given the projections of a bumper U.S. corn crop this harvest season.

According to calculations from Kingsman, the sugar analytics unit of Platts, the crush margin will rise to 24.4 cents/gal for the reporting week, up 6.3 cents/gal from the prior week.

On a weekly basis, the U.S. EIA publishes its ethanol production data on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET.

Platts began publishing its Bentek Energy and Kingsman forecasts of ethanol production and crush margins, respectively October 4, 2013 and was one of few independent sources of such data during the temporary shutdown of the U.S. government related to lack of budget appropriations.

“We are pleased to meet a market need for independent estimates of this important government data series,” said Simon Thorne, editorial director of agriculture at Platts. “The advance forecasts are aimed at helping the marketplace better estimate price-sensitive data and assist customers in making better and timelier business decisions.”

The Bentek Energy forecast of U.S. ethanol production utilizes data from approximately the past three years and is calculated on actual consumption figures at ethanol production plants.

“When comparing the Bentek production forecast alongside the actual government production data, our estimate is within an average 0.06% – a very strong correlation since the records began in 2011,” said Thorne.

The forecasts are published weekly in Platts Biofuelsan and via press release. For more information on the Platts/Bentek/Kingsman forecasts and/or to begin a trial of Biofuelscan, visit: http://www.platts.com/news-feature/2013/agriculture/us-ethanol/index

For more information on biofuels and agriculture visit the Platts website at http://www.platts.com/agriculture/.

*Forecasts are the product of proprietary forecast models by Platts’ analytical units Bentek Energy and Kingsman, which specialize in oil and natural gas; and, sugar and biofuels, respectively. Platts acquired Bentek Energy in 2011 and Kingsman in 2012.
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