Obama’s Incredible Shrinking Recovery

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By USDR.

U.S. Congressman Kevin Brady (R-TX), the top House Republican on the Joint Economic Committee issued the following statement on the today’s release by Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of its second estimate of 1^st-quarter 2015 GDP. BEA estimates that real GDP fell at an annual rate of 0.7 percent during the 1^st-quarter of 2015. In its first estimate, BEA estimated that real GDP grew at an annual rate of 0.2 percent.

“This is just another in a disappointing string of news about the economy. The lack of growth experienced in this recovery has led to substandard job growth and stagnant incomes.”

Average Post-1960 Recoveries. During other recoveries lasting longer than one year, real GDP grew at an annual rate of 4.0 percent in the 23 quarters following a recession. During the strong Reagan recovery of the 1980s, real GDP grew at an annual rate of 4.8 percent over a comparable period. Real GDP has grown at an annual rate of only 2.2 percent during the current recovery.
Growth Gap. Compared with the average of other post-1960 recoveries, the growth gap in real GDP stands at $l.714 trillion (2009$), up from $1.522 trillion (2009$) last quarter. Compared with the Reagan recovery, the growth gap stands at $2.525 trillion (2009$).

Eliminating the Growth Gap. In order to eliminate the growth gap in real GDP compared with the average of other post-1960 recoveries by the end of 2016, real GDP would need to growth at an annual rate of 8.7 percent over the next seven quarters. To catch up with the Reagan recovery, real GDP would need to grow at an annual rate of 12.1 percent over the next seven quarters.