Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased by 6.8 percent in April 2015 compared with April 2014 and increased by 2.3 percent month over month compared with March 2015. Excluding distressed sales, only South Dakota (-0.3 percent) and Louisiana (-0.2 percent) showed year-over-year depreciation in April. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate-owned (REO) transactions.
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices, including distressed sales, are projected to increase by 1.1 percent month over month from April 2015 to May 2015 and by 5.3 percent** on a year-over-year basis from April 2015 to April 2016. Excluding distressed sales, home prices are projected to increase by 0.9 percent month over month from April 2015 to May 2015 and by 4.9 percent** year over year from April 2015 to April 2016. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.
“For the first four months of 2015, home sales were up 9 percent compared to the same period a year ago,” said Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “One byproduct of the increased sales activity is rising house prices, and, as a result, month-over-month home prices are up almost 3 percent for April 2015 and up more than 6 percent from a year ago.”
“Old fashion supply and demand, fueled by historically low mortgage rates and improving consumer finances and confidence, continue to push home prices up,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “We expect continued price appreciation throughout 2015 and into next year. Over the longer term, household formation, up by more than one million over the past year alone, will drive down vacancy rates and create tighter housing markets in many metropolitan areas. This should provide the necessary underpinning for rising prices for the foreseeable future.”
Highlights as of April 2015:
- Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: South Carolina (+11.4 percent), Colorado (+9.7 percent), Washington (+9.1 percent), Florida (+9 percent) and Texas (+8.3 percent).
- Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: South Carolina (+10 percent), Florida (+9.5 percent), Colorado (+9.3 percent), Washington (+8.7 percent) and Texas (+8.2 percent).
- Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to April 2015) was -9 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change for the same period was -5.1 percent.
- Including distressed sales, four states experienced year-over-year home price depreciation: Massachusetts (-1.7 percent), Louisiana (-1.5 percent), Connecticut (-1.1 percent) and Maryland (-0.7 percent).
- The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were: Nevada (-33.9 percent), Florida (-29.3 percent), Rhode Island (-28.2 percent), Arizona (-26.2 percent) and Connecticut (-24.8 percent).
- Of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population, 92 showed year-over-year increases. The eight CBSAs that showed year-over-year declines were: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD; Camden, NJ; Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT; New Orleans-Metairie, LA; Worcester, MA-CT; Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY; New Haven-Milford, CT and Wilmington, DE-MD-NJ.
*March data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.
** The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2.0 percent margin of error for the index including distressed sales and a +/- 2.0 percent margin of error for the index excluding distressed sales.
The CoreLogic HPI™ incorporates more than 30 years’ worth of repeat sales transactions, representing more than 65 million observations sourced from CoreLogic industry-leading property information and its securities and servicing databases. The CoreLogic HPI provides a multi-tier market evaluation based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. nonconforming) and distressed sales. The CoreLogic HPI is a repeat-sales index that tracks increases and decreases in sales prices for the same homes over time, including single-family attached and single-family detached homes, which provides a more accurate “constant-quality” view of pricing trends than basing analysis on all home sales. The CoreLogic HPI provides the most comprehensive set of monthly home price indices available covering 7,292 ZIP codes (59 percent of total U.S. population), 657 Core Based Statistical Areas (89 percent of total U.S. population) and 1,289 counties (86 percent of total U.S. population) located in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Forecast ranges provided in this report are based on a 95 percent confidence interval.
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CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 3.5 billion records spanning more than 40 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.