The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. increased 0.7 percent in July, after decreasing 0.3 percent in June and increasing 0.1 percent in May. Five of the seven components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index now stands at 104.6 (2004=100).
“The UK LEI regained its upward momentum in July, suggesting that the economy should continue expanding at a moderate pace for the rest of the year,” said Brian Schaitkin, Economist for Europe with The Conference Board. “Both business and consumer confidence have been strong, partly as a result of improved economic conditions in the Euro Area, Britain’s largest trading partner. However, weakening corporate profits could discourage businesses from investing more in the near term even as the business environment continues to improve.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.2 percent in July, after increasing 0.2 percent in June and 0.3 percent in May. The index now stands at 104.3 (2004 = 100).
The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:
Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)
Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and nine other countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.